Microsoft was founded in 1975, but it wasn’t until 1994, with the launch of Windows 95, that Microsoft became the great giant. Almost overnight, Microsoft’s Windows became a worldwide sensation. I still remember attending the launch party at Microsoft and getting my very own copy of Windows 95. The excitement in the air was electric. (Hey, not only did it beat standing in line for hours upon end, I got it before everyone else.) After Windows 95, Microsoft got on a roll. They released hit after hit such as Office, Internet Explorer, SQL Server, Visual Studio, Exchange, and subsequent releases of Windows. Microsoft was unstoppable. Competitors were either bought or put out of business, or they became partners. Heck, even a monopoly charge by the Justice Department would not stop Microsoft. Their domination of the desktop market was impenetrable. Yet, today, Microsoft is slowly crumbling; all the excitement and innovation is gone, replaced by nothing more than just another “giant” business. My favorite, most admired company is falling apart. What happened?
I believe Microsoft hit its peak and began its decline when Bill Gates stepped down as Microsoft’s CEO. It was obviously a necessity in order to keep Microsoft intact rather than splitting it up into three companies. However, it ultimately hurt Microsoft. The company began transforming from a company with innovative, exciting, and easy-to-use products to a company that with one-size-fits-all, boring, and hard-to-use products. Just look at Microsoft’s generation of products under Bill Gates. The products were complex-under-the-hood, but extremely capable and very easy to use. Anyone could use Windows and anyone with savvy computer skills could develop for the platform. Not anymore. Now, you need a minimum of two weeks of training just to use Windows and you have to be a Master Programmer to develop anything for the platform. Plus, by the time a Master Programmer has picked up all the current concepts, they all change. Isn’t that insane; one of their key successes for market dominance being tossed from their playbook?
Let’s look at what happened and is happening. Windows Vista was the most difficult and complex version of Windows ever. They abandoned just about everyone and everything that made Windows successful. And Windows 7? Instead of reducing the complexity and increasing compatibility, they increased complexity and reduced compatibility; obviously learning nothing from their biggest flop. It is my steadfast belief that the most successful technology products are ones that are extremely capable yet easy to use. Just look at the success of TiVo, the iPod, and the iPhone. (Heck, my Mom and Dad can use all three without any help from me.) Given Windows’ complexity and Microsoft’s intent to make their development platform, Microsoft .NET, harder and harder to learn and use, people are ready to jump ship. The problem has been where to go. Businesses are already swapping Windows Servers for Linux and Solaris Servers in droves. Why? Linux and Solaris are more stable and reliable. And Java, one of the key development tools for Linux and Solaris, is easier to learn than .NET and runs on multiple platforms, including Windows. The next swaps will occur at the desktop, Microsoft’s playground.
I believe a change is on the horizon in the industry. Microsoft is about to be shown the door, no pun intended. Their biggest hit is ripe for a fall, and a big one at that. Right now, there isn’t a single user interface for Linux or Solaris that can compete with Windows and MacOS hasn’t presented a challenge due to lack of software availability. All of that is about to change. Apple is learning and Google is growing. In the next two years, one of these two is going to develop a compelling, easy-to-use, and rich operating system with easy-to-learn, easy-to-use development tools. When that happens, Windows at Microsoft will close. (OK, maybe pun was intended.) My money is on Apple. I’m not impressed with what I am seeing coming out of Google. Their user interfaces are not compelling; in fact, they are downright boring. Not Apple. I see them emerging as the new industry leader and don’t think that “little” switch from Motorola to Intel was small. No, Apple is ready to take on Microsoft and they are about to win — big.
As for me, I am saddened. I grew up with Microsoft. I became of successful software engineer because of Microsoft software. At just 18 years old, I was building components for America Online using Windows as a platform. Yet, since Windows Vista, I have shifted from Mr. Microsoft to Mr. Anti-Microsoft. It also didn’t help when I interviewed for a senior leader position at Microsoft and came face to face with the arrogance of Microsoft’s people. Today, my teams build almost exclusively for Linux and Solaris with Java and our backend systems are typically powered by Oracle. We’re now even programming directly for virtualized platforms such as VMware and Xen as well as building software for Apple’s iPhone and iPod. Microsoft is almost nowhere to be seen by the number one communications company in the world. And, as an advocate for my company, I fully support the strategy. As a steward of my company’s development dollars, I can’t justify investing dollars into technology that is in a downward cycle rather than upward one. I can only hope that Microsoft will reverse course. In order to do so, they will need to hire people in their R&D leadership that focus primarily on innovation and user experience rather than business. I don’t think the two are mutually exclusive. In fact, if you couple easy-to-use, innovative and exciting products with sound marketing, you’ve got a winner. But if you couple hard-to-use, run-of-the-mill and boring products with sound marketing, you’ve got what you have now: a company in decline. Good luck Microsoft. I hope you find what made you successful before its too late.